December is half gone and the year of 2010 will soon be over. The overall stock market is considered to be good following last year's huge gain. The SPY of ETF index fund which is equivalent to S&P 500 posted a gain of 7.8% year-to-date. Meanwhile my first year Ocean Portfolio using ETFs as the investment portfolio has been disappointed due to my improper used of stops and subsequently let the loss accumulated.
In coming year, I will continue to use moving averages with cross-over as the lead indicator for trend following. I will use daily average instead of weekly and I will apply the ATR, RSI, ADX indicators as extra filters for profits and stops as opposed to the fixed percentage that I used this year.
In general, my method is as follow: the daily moving averages (DMAs) for trending following will be 20 and 50 days, when DMA-20 crosses above DMA-50, the trend is up. When DMA-20 crossed below DMA-50, the trend is down. I will start off with $100,000 each as the hypothetical portfolio for two portfolios I am tracking. (1) Ocean Portfolio and (2) TSP portfolio - the government retirement system for federal employees. I hope these two portfolios will achieve better results in 2011 than this year.
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